Fri, Dec 26 2025 • 12:30 • St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.93 (league 1.37) 1.26 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
51.7% 22.1% 24.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.0%
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 0
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Birmingham 0 4.1% 5.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 8.0% 10.0% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
3 4.9% 6.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.4% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBirminghamDerby
Played55
Form27%33%
Attack38%54%
Defense23%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Birmingham Derby
HATHAT
Played101222121022
Wins60%17%36%25%50%36%
Draws30%17%23%42%20%32%
Loses10%67%41%33%30%32%

Form: Birmingham: DWWLLWLDDLWLWWLWDWLLDL • Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWD

League goals

Metric Birmingham Derby
HATHAT
GF total22830151631
GF avg2.20.71.41.31.61.4
GA total92029181230
GA avg0.91.71.31.51.21.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBirminghamDerby
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%77%91%82%
1.532%36%36%27%
2.514%18%14%18%
3.514%0%0%5%
4.50%0%0%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBirminghamDerby
HATHAT
Clean sheets415224
Failed to score055112

Penalties

MetricBirminghamDerby
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricBirminghamDerby
Wins25
Draws23
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-22-10-3
Biggest losses2-33-03-53-1
Goals For4233
Goals Against3353

Model comparison

MetricBirminghamDerby
Form44%56%
Att42%58%
Def41%59%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h50%50%
Goals41%59%
Total46.5%53.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Derby

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.95 @ Superbet
Draw3.50 @ Betano
Away4.50 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.72 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ 188Bet
No1.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Birmingham = 1.93 (league 1.37), Derby = 1.26 (league 1.14)

Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Birmingham 0 4.1% 5.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 8.0% 10.0% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
3 4.9% 6.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.4% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.7% · Draw 22.1% · Away win 24.6%

vtt 57 , vtd1