Mon, Dec 29 2025 • 19:45 • King Power Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.37) 1.57 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.7% 24.9% 44.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
0 - 1
9.6%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leicester 0 6.1% 9.6% 7.5% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5%
1 7.5% 11.7% 9.2% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.6% 7.2% 5.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4%
3 1.9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLeicesterDerby
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack67%47%
Defense33%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Leicester Derby
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins36%33%35%25%45%35%
Draws36%25%30%42%27%35%
Loses27%42%35%33%27%30%

Form: Leicester: WLWWDDDDWDLLLDWWLLWDWLL • Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDD

League goals

Metric Leicester Derby
HATHAT
GF total151732151732
GF avg1.41.41.41.31.51.4
GA total132033181331
GA avg1.21.71.41.51.21.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLeicesterDerby
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%87%91%83%
1.543%39%35%26%
2.513%13%13%17%
3.50%4%0%4%
4.50%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLeicesterDerby
HATHAT
Clean sheets213224
Failed to score224112

Penalties

MetricLeicesterDerby
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricLeicesterDerby
Wins25
Draws43
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-32-10-3
Biggest losses0-24-13-53-1
Goals For3333
Goals Against3453

Model comparison

MetricLeicesterDerby
Form54%46%
Att59%41%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h93%7%
Goals71%29%
Total59.7%40.5%

Advice: Double chance : Leicester or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.16 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.40 @ 188Bet
Away3.70 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.28 @ SBO
Under 2.51.69 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.90 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Leicester = 1.23 (league 1.37), Derby = 1.57 (league 1.15)

Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leicester 0 6.1% 9.6% 7.5% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5%
1 7.5% 11.7% 9.2% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.6% 7.2% 5.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4%
3 1.9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.7% · Draw 24.9% · Away win 44.7%

vtt 34 , vtd1