Thu, Jan 1 2026 • 15:00 • Vicarage Road
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.38) 0.63 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.6% 18.5% 9.9%
best score tips
2 - 0
14.4%
1 - 0
13.8%
3 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Birmingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Watford 0 6.6% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 13.8% 8.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.4% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.1% 6.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricWatfordBirmingham
Played55
Form73%20%
Attack58%33%
Defense67%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Watford Birmingham
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins58%25%42%50%17%33%
Draws33%33%33%42%17%29%
Loses8%42%25%8%67%38%

Form: Watford: LWDDLLWDWLWLWDDWDLWDDWWW • Birmingham: DWWLLWLDDLWLWWLWDWLLDLDD

League goals

Metric Watford Birmingham
HATHAT
GF total20143424832
GF avg1.71.21.42.00.71.3
GA total121729112031
GA avg1.01.41.20.91.71.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineWatfordBirmingham
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%88%79%79%
1.546%29%29%33%
2.513%4%13%17%
3.50%0%13%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricWatfordBirmingham
HATHAT
Clean sheets213415
Failed to score134055

Penalties

MetricWatfordBirmingham
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricWatfordBirmingham
Wins12
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-02-34-01-2
Biggest losses0-13-12-33-0
Goals For3342
Goals Against2333

Model comparison

MetricWatfordBirmingham
Form79%21%
Att64%36%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution78%22%
H2h71%29%
Goals73%27%
Total72.0%28.0%

Advice: Double chance : Watford or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ Unibet
Draw3.49 @ Pinnacle
Away3.30 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.03 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.81 @ 188Bet
No2.11 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Watford = 2.09 (league 1.38), Birmingham = 0.63 (league 1.12)

Birmingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Watford 0 6.6% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 13.8% 8.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.4% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.1% 6.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.6% · Draw 18.5% · Away win 9.9%

vtt 20 , vtd1