Thu, Jan 1 2026 • 15:00 • St. Mary's Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.37) 0.98 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.3% 24.6% 22.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.0%
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Millwall
0 1 2 3 4 5
Southampton 0 7.3% 7.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 12.0% 11.7% 5.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.8% 9.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 5.4% 5.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSouthamptonMillwall
Played55
Form33%33%
Attack58%33%
Defense33%42%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Southampton Millwall
HATHAT
Played111324131124
Wins45%23%33%54%36%46%
Draws36%31%33%15%36%25%
Loses18%46%33%31%27%29%

Form: Southampton: WDLDDLDWDDLLLWWWWLWWLDLD • Millwall: WLWLDWDLWWWWDLDLWWWDLLDW

League goals

Metric Southampton Millwall
HATHAT
GF total172138151227
GF avg1.51.61.61.21.11.1
GA total112334161632
GA avg1.01.81.41.21.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSouthamptonMillwall
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%88%75%67%
1.542%42%29%38%
2.521%13%8%21%
3.54%0%0%8%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSouthamptonMillwall
HATHAT
Clean sheets303628
Failed to score303426

Penalties

MetricSouthamptonMillwall
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricSouthamptonMillwall
Wins44
Draws21
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-53-01-2
Biggest losses0-23-10-44-0
Goals For3532
Goals Against2344

Model comparison

MetricSouthamptonMillwall
Form50%50%
Att64%36%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h60%40%
Goals58%42%
Total57.2%42.8%

Advice: Double chance : Southampton or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.85 @ Betano
Draw3.94 @ Pinnacle
Away4.50 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.78 @ Betano
Under 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ 188Bet
No2.18 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Southampton = 1.64 (league 1.37), Millwall = 0.98 (league 1.13)

Millwall
0 1 2 3 4 5
Southampton 0 7.3% 7.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 12.0% 11.7% 5.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.8% 9.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 5.4% 5.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.3% · Draw 24.6% · Away win 22.4%

vtt 11 , vtd1