Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 15:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
1 - 2
Expected Goals
0.87 (league 1.38) 1.26 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.7% 29.0% 45.1%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.0%
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
Wrexham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 11.9% 15.0% 9.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.4% 13.0% 8.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 4.5% 5.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyWrexham
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack70%100%
Defense60%20%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.412 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Wrexham
HATHAT
Played131225131225
Wins31%42%36%46%25%36%
Draws38%25%32%38%42%40%
Loses31%33%32%15%33%24%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLW • Wrexham: LLDWLWDDDLWDWDWDWDDLDLWWW

League goals

Metric Derby Wrexham
HATHAT
GF total161834241236
GF avg1.21.51.41.81.01.4
GA total181533191231
GA avg1.41.31.31.51.01.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyWrexham
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%80%84%72%
1.532%28%40%40%
2.512%16%12%12%
3.50%4%4%0%
4.50%4%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyWrexham
HATHAT
Clean sheets325347
Failed to score112044

Penalties

MetricDerbyWrexham
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricDerbyWrexham
Wins51
Draws33
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-35-30-2
Biggest losses3-53-11-32-0
Goals For3353
Goals Against5332

Model comparison

MetricDerbyWrexham
Form44%56%
Att37%63%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total48.3%51.7%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.35 @ Unibet
Draw3.17 @ Pinnacle
Away3.57 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.58 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.17 @ 188Bet
No1.78 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 0.87 (league 1.38), Wrexham = 1.26 (league 1.11)

Wrexham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 11.9% 15.0% 9.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.4% 13.0% 8.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 4.5% 5.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away win 45.1%

vtt 2 , vtd1