Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 15:00 • Riverside Stadium
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.71 (league 1.37) 1.30 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.3% 23.7% 28.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
Southampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Middlesbrough 0 5.0% 6.4% 4.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
1 8.5% 11.0% 7.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
2 7.2% 9.4% 6.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.1% 5.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMiddlesbroughSouthampton
Played55
Form27%20%
Attack30%40%
Defense50%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Middlesbrough Southampton
HATHAT
Played121325121325
Wins58%38%48%42%23%32%
Draws25%31%28%42%31%36%
Loses17%31%24%17%46%32%

Form: Middlesbrough: WWWWDWDDLWWDLDWDLWWWWLDLL • Southampton: WDLDDLDWDDLLLWWWWLWWLDLDD

League goals

Metric Middlesbrough Southampton
HATHAT
GF total161733172138
GF avg1.31.31.31.41.61.5
GA total111526112334
GA avg0.91.21.00.91.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMiddlesbroughSouthampton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%76%84%84%
1.544%16%40%40%
2.512%8%20%12%
3.54%4%4%0%
4.50%0%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMiddlesbroughSouthampton
HATHAT
Clean sheets426404
Failed to score347404

Penalties

MetricMiddlesbroughSouthampton
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricMiddlesbroughSouthampton
Wins44
Draws22
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-43-01-5
Biggest losses2-43-00-23-1
Goals For3435
Goals Against4323

Model comparison

MetricMiddlesbroughSouthampton
Form57%43%
Att43%57%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h38%62%
Goals45%55%
Total49.2%50.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Southampton

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Betano
Draw3.75 @ Pinnacle
Away3.25 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.18 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.60 @ William Hill
No2.39 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Middlesbrough = 1.71 (league 1.37), Southampton = 1.30 (league 1.11)

Southampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Middlesbrough 0 5.0% 6.4% 4.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
1 8.5% 11.0% 7.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
2 7.2% 9.4% 6.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.1% 5.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.3% · Draw 23.7% · Away win 28.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1