Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 15:00 • The Den
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.37) 0.84 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.5% 30.5% 26.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.8%
0 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
Swansea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millwall 0 13.8% 11.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.8% 13.2% 5.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.0% 7.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMillwallSwansea
Played55
Form33%60%
Attack30%50%
Defense40%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Millwall Swansea
HATHAT
Played131225131225
Wins54%33%44%46%25%36%
Draws15%42%28%23%17%20%
Loses31%25%28%31%58%44%

Form: Millwall: WLWLDWDLWWWWDLDLWWWDLLDWD • Swansea: LWDWDLDWLDLWDLLLLLWWLWLWW

League goals

Metric Millwall Swansea
HATHAT
GF total151227161026
GF avg1.21.01.11.20.81.0
GA total161632161531
GA avg1.21.31.31.21.31.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMillwallSwansea
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%64%76%72%
1.528%36%28%32%
2.58%20%0%16%
3.50%8%0%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMillwallSwansea
HATHAT
Clean sheets639437
Failed to score437156

Penalties

MetricMillwallSwansea
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricMillwallSwansea
Wins42
Draws11
Losses25

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-22-00-2
Biggest losses0-44-01-43-0
Goals For3222
Goals Against4443

Model comparison

MetricMillwallSwansea
Form36%64%
Att38%63%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h71%29%
Goals50%50%
Total48.2%52.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Swansea and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.11 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.23 @ Pinnacle
Away4.01 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.67 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.08 @ 188Bet
No1.83 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Millwall = 1.14 (league 1.37), Swansea = 0.84 (league 1.14)

Swansea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millwall 0 13.8% 11.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.8% 13.2% 5.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.0% 7.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.5% · Draw 30.5% · Away win 26.8%

vtt 3 , vtd1