Fri, Jan 23 2026 • 20:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.37) 1.12 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
45.3% 25.8% 28.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.3%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
West Brom
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 7.4% 8.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
1 11.0% 12.3% 6.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.1% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyWest Brom
Played55
Form60%20%
Attack55%45%
Defense55%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby West Brom
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins29%50%39%43%21%32%
Draws36%21%29%29%0%14%
Loses36%29%32%29%79%54%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLWLWW • West Brom: WWDWLLDWLWLLDLWLDWLLWLLWLLLL

League goals

Metric Derby West Brom
HATHAT
GF total172138181331
GF avg1.21.51.41.30.91.1
GA total201636192443
GA avg1.41.11.31.41.71.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyWest Brom
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.593%79%71%82%
1.532%29%32%43%
2.511%14%7%21%
3.50%4%0%4%
4.50%4%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyWest Brom
HATHAT
Clean sheets336325
Failed to score112358

Penalties

MetricDerbyWest Brom
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricDerbyWest Brom
Wins52
Draws31
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-32-02-3
Biggest losses3-53-10-53-0
Goals For3333
Goals Against5353

Model comparison

MetricDerbyWest Brom
Form75%25%
Att55%45%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h100%0%
Goals75%25%
Total66.6%33.4%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.70 @ Dafabet
Draw3.27 @ Pinnacle
Away2.95 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ William Hill
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.49 (league 1.37), West Brom = 1.12 (league 1.13)

West Brom
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 7.4% 8.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
1 11.0% 12.3% 6.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.1% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.3% · Draw 25.8% · Away win 28.4%

vtt 13 , vtd7