Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 15:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
2 - 0
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.37) 1.10 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.6% 28.8% 34.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
1 - 0
12.2%
0 - 1
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Swansea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 10.6% 11.7% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.2% 13.3% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 6.9% 7.6% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 2.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbySwansea
Played55
Form67%67%
Attack71%79%
Defense71%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 211 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Swansea
HATHAT
Played161531161531
Wins25%53%39%50%27%39%
Draws38%20%29%25%13%19%
Loses38%27%32%25%60%42%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLWLWWDWL • Swansea: LWDWDLDWLDLWDLLLLLWWLWLWWLDWLWW

League goals

Metric Derby Swansea
HATHAT
GF total192645241438
GF avg1.21.71.51.50.91.2
GA total231639181937
GA avg1.41.11.31.11.31.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbySwansea
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%77%81%71%
1.532%29%32%32%
2.513%13%6%13%
3.53%3%3%3%
4.53%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbySwansea
HATHAT
Clean sheets347549
Failed to score112156

Penalties

MetricDerbySwansea
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricDerbySwansea
Wins52
Draws31
Losses25

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-54-00-2
Biggest losses3-53-11-43-0
Goals For3542
Goals Against5343

Model comparison

MetricDerbySwansea
Form50%50%
Att48%52%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h29%71%
Goals40%60%
Total44.3%55.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Swansea

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.54 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.26 @ Pinnacle
Away3.40 @ 888Sport

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.30 @ 888Sport
Under 2.51.70 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ 888Sport
No1.96 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.14 (league 1.37), Swansea = 1.10 (league 1.15)

Swansea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 10.6% 11.7% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.2% 13.3% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 6.9% 7.6% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 2.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.6% · Draw 28.8% · Away win 34.4%

vtt 6 , vtd1