Championship
— England
Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 15:00 •
Pride Park
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.38)
1.10 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.2% | 28.9% | 34.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.4%
1 - 0
12.2%
0 - 1
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Swansea | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Derby | 0 | 10.8% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 71% | 79% |
| Defense | 71% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Derby | Swansea | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 15 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 25% | 53% | 39% | 50% | 27% | 39% |
| Draws | 38% | 20% | 29% | 25% | 13% | 19% |
| Loses | 38% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 60% | 42% |
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SwanseaLWDWDLDWLDLWDLLLLLWWLWLWWLDWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Derby | Swansea | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 23 | 16 | 39 | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Derby | Swansea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 94% | 77% | 81% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 29% | 32% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 13% | 6% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Derby | Swansea | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 3-5 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 48% | 52% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 44.3% | 55.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.54 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.26 @ Pinnacle
Away3.40 @ 888Sport
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.30 @ 888Sport
Under 2.51.70 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ 888Sport
No1.96 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
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