Championship
— England
Sat, Feb 21 2026 • 15:00 •
Vicarage Road
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.39)
1.63 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.8% | 24.5% | 46.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
0 - 1
9.7%
1 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Derby | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Watford | 0 | 6.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Watford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 19% | 69% |
| Defense | 63% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Watford | Derby | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 50% | 19% | 34% | 29% | 53% | 41% |
| Draws | 31% | 44% | 38% | 35% | 20% | 28% |
| Loses | 19% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 31% |
WatfordLWDDLLWDWLWLWDDWDLWDDWWWWLDDLDLD
DerbyLLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLWLWWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Watford | Derby | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 17 | 41 | 21 | 26 | 47 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 17 | 21 | 38 | 23 | 16 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Watford | Derby | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 84% | 94% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 31% | 34% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 3% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Watford | Derby | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Watford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Watford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 3-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Watford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 21% | 79% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 39.6% | 60.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.95 @ Bet365
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away3.80 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Bet365
No1.83 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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