Wed, Feb 25 2026 • 19:45 • The Den
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.37) 0.94 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.6% 25.7% 23.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.9%
1 - 1
12.1%
2 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Birmingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millwall 0 8.4% 7.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 12.9% 12.1% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.9% 9.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMillwallBirmingham
Played55
Form67%73%
Attack56%39%
Defense72%83%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Millwall Birmingham
HATHAT
Played171633161733
Wins53%44%48%50%29%39%
Draws18%31%24%44%18%30%
Loses29%25%27%6%53%30%

Form: Millwall: WLWLDWDLWWWWDLDLWWWDLLDWDWWLWDWWL • Birmingham: DWWLLWLDDLWLWWLWDWLLDLDDLWDWDWWDW

League goals

Metric Millwall Birmingham
HATHAT
GF total231942301545
GF avg1.41.21.31.90.91.4
GA total211940152540
GA avg1.21.21.20.91.51.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMillwallBirmingham
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%64%79%76%
1.536%33%36%30%
2.59%18%12%15%
3.53%6%9%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMillwallBirmingham
HATHAT
Clean sheets7512538
Failed to score437167

Penalties

MetricMillwallBirmingham
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricMillwallBirmingham
Wins42
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-24-00-2
Biggest losses0-44-02-33-0
Goals For4242
Goals Against4433

Model comparison

MetricMillwallBirmingham
Form48%52%
Att59%41%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h38%62%
Goals25%75%
Total44.8%55.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Birmingham

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.58 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.35 @ Unibet
Away2.95 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.14 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.86 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ Pinnacle
No2.04 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Millwall = 1.54 (league 1.37), Birmingham = 0.94 (league 1.14)

Birmingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millwall 0 8.4% 7.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 12.9% 12.1% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.9% 9.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.6% · Draw 25.7% · Away win 23.2%

vtt 7 , vtd1