Mon, Mar 16 2026 • 20:00 • Fratton Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.05 (league 1.37) 1.54 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.6% 25.5% 48.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 1
11.6%
1 - 2
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Portsmouth 0 7.5% 11.6% 8.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.5%
1 7.9% 12.1% 9.3% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.1% 6.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPortsmouthDerby
Played55
Form27%40%
Attack46%54%
Defense46%31%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Portsmouth Derby
HATHAT
Played181836191837
Wins33%22%28%37%44%41%
Draws22%33%28%32%17%24%
Loses44%44%44%32%39%35%

Form: Portsmouth: WLDWDLLDWDLLLDLWLLLWDDWLWDDWLLWWLLDL • Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLWLWWDWLWLLWWL

League goals

Metric Portsmouth Derby
HATHAT
GF total191736262854
GF avg1.10.91.01.41.61.5
GA total192847252348
GA avg1.11.61.31.31.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePortsmouthDerby
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%81%89%78%
1.522%31%38%30%
2.511%11%14%14%
3.50%6%3%5%
4.50%3%3%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPortsmouthDerby
HATHAT
Clean sheets437448
Failed to score6612134

Penalties

MetricPortsmouthDerby
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total14

Streaks

MetricPortsmouthDerby
Wins25
Draws23
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-33-10-5
Biggest losses0-25-03-54-2
Goals For3335
Goals Against2554

Model comparison

MetricPortsmouthDerby
Form40%60%
Att46%54%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h36%64%
Goals38%63%
Total43.0%57.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Derby

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.24 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.28 @ Pinnacle
Away3.54 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.24 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ William Hill
No1.96 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Portsmouth = 1.05 (league 1.37), Derby = 1.54 (league 1.14)

Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Portsmouth 0 7.5% 11.6% 8.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.5%
1 7.9% 12.1% 9.3% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.1% 6.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.6% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 48.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1