Championship
— England
Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:45 •
St. Mary's Stadium
Expected Goals
1.50 (league 1.39)
1.11 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.6% | 25.7% | 28.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Ipswich | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Southampton | 0 | 7.3% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Southampton carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 63 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Southampton +33.8, Ipswich +0.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Southampton
vs
Ipswich
Elo gapSouthampton +63
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3225.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3225.2
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1626.6 | 1598.6 |
| Form Elo | 1655.6 | 1600.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1531.8 | 1537.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1643.7 | 1616 |
| Defense Elo | 1543.3 | 1561.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +33.8 | +0.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Southampton last-5 Elo change: +33.8; Ipswich last-5 Elo change: +0.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 53% |
| Attack | 70% | 30% |
| Defense | 75% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 55% | 41% | 48% | 59% | 41% | 50% |
| Draws | 32% | 27% | 30% | 36% | 27% | 32% |
| Loses | 14% | 32% | 23% | 5% | 32% | 18% |
SouthamptonWDLDDLDWDDLLLWWWWLWWLDLDDLLWDWWWDWWDWWWWWWWD
IpswichDDLDWWDWLLWWDWDWLDWWLWDWWWWLDWLWWWDDWDWWLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 36 | 41 | 77 | 40 | 35 | 75 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 17 | 36 | 53 | 17 | 28 | 45 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Southampton | Ipswich | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 75% | 86% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 32% | 52% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 11% | 23% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 2% | 7% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 9 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 9 |
Streaks
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 54.2% | 45.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.24 @ Dafabet
Draw3.60 @ BetVictor
Away3.27 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.75 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.12 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.65 @ William Hill
No2.38 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…