Mon, Apr 6 2026 • 14:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.37) 1.02 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.9% 29.5% 32.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.4%
1 - 0
13.2%
0 - 1
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
Stoke City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 11.7% 11.9% 6.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.2% 13.4% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 7.4% 7.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 2.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyStoke City
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack35%53%
Defense71%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Stoke City
HATHAT
Played202040202040
Wins40%45%43%45%30%38%
Draws30%15%23%25%20%23%
Loses30%40%35%30%50%40%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLWLWWDWLWLLWWLWWL • Stoke City: WWWLWLDDDWLWWWLLWLLLWLDLWWDLDLDLDWLLDWLW

League goals

Metric Derby Stoke City
HATHAT
GF total273158311748
GF avg1.41.61.51.60.91.2
GA total252651212243
GA avg1.31.31.31.11.11.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyStoke City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%75%65%68%
1.538%30%33%30%
2.513%15%18%8%
3.53%5%3%3%
4.53%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyStoke City
HATHAT
Clean sheets55106713
Failed to score1345914

Penalties

MetricDerbyStoke City
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total51

Streaks

MetricDerbyStoke City
Wins53
Draws33
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-55-10-3
Biggest losses3-54-20-24-0
Goals For3553
Goals Against5434

Model comparison

MetricDerbyStoke City
Form56%44%
Att40%60%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h50%50%
Goals54%46%
Total53.2%46.8%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.92 @ Dafabet
Draw3.71 @ Pinnacle
Away4.24 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.97 @ Superbet
Under 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ Superbet
No2.10 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.13 (league 1.37), Stoke City = 1.02 (league 1.15)

Stoke City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 11.7% 11.9% 6.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.2% 13.4% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 7.4% 7.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 2.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.9% · Draw 29.5% · Away win 32.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1