Championship
— England
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:00 •
Coventry Building Society Arena
Expected Goals
1.75 (league 1.39)
0.84 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | 23.4% | 17.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.2%
2 - 0
11.5%
1 - 1
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Wrexham | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Coventry | 0 | 7.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.2% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Coventry carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 89 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Coventry +2.0, Wrexham -15.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Coventry
vs
Wrexham
Elo gapCoventry +89
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3191.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3191.6
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1622.6 | 1569 |
| Form Elo | 1630.5 | 1562.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1585.1 | 1566.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1681.8 | 1584.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1593.2 | 1494 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.0 | -15.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Coventry last-5 Elo change: +2.0; Wrexham last-5 Elo change: -15.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 69% | 46% |
| Defense | 69% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 73% | 45% | 59% | 45% | 41% | 43% |
| Draws | 18% | 32% | 25% | 27% | 32% | 30% |
| Loses | 9% | 23% | 16% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
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WrexhamLLDWLWDDDLWDWDWDWDDLDLWWWWLDWWLDWWWLWLWDLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 48 | 42 | 90 | 39 | 27 | 66 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 18 | 26 | 44 | 35 | 25 | 60 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Coventry | Wrexham | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 64% | 86% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 59% | 27% | 43% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 9% | 11% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 5% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 9% | 0% | 5% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 0-5 | 5-3 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Coventry | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 69% | 31% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 59.0% | 41.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.13 @ Dafabet
Draw3.91 @ Pinnacle
Away3.30 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.16 @ SBO
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.65 @ Betano
No2.38 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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