Championship
— England
Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:30 •
Ashton Gate Stadium
Expected Goals
1.21 (league 1.39)
0.98 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.3% | 29.0% | 29.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Stoke City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bristol City | 0 | 11.2% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Bristol City carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 81 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bristol City -4.1, Stoke City -40.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Bristol City
vs
Stoke City
Elo gapBristol City +81
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2921.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2921.4
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1483.5 | 1437.9 |
| Form Elo | 1474.7 | 1414.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.5 | 1464.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1495.7 | 1424.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1496.2 | 1488.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.1 | -40.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Bristol City last-5 Elo change: -4.1; Stoke City last-5 Elo change: -40.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 7% |
| Attack | 30% | 15% |
| Defense | 60% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 36% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Draws | 18% | 30% | 24% | 26% | 18% | 22% |
| Loses | 45% | 35% | 40% | 35% | 55% | 44% |
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League goals
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 26 | 57 | 34 | 17 | 51 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 31 | 28 | 59 | 28 | 26 | 54 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bristol City | Stoke City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 71% | 64% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 40% | 29% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 9% | 16% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 16 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 83% | 17% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.00 @ Betfair
Draw3.80 @ Betano
Away3.75 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.65 @ Betano
Under 2.52.30 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ William Hill
No2.38 @ BetVictor
📊
League standings
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