Championship
— England
Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:30 •
Swansea.com Stadium
Expected Goals
1.31 (league 1.39)
0.94 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.9% | 28.1% | 26.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 0
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Charlton | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Swansea | 0 | 10.5% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.8% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Swansea carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Swansea +17.0, Charlton -15.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Swansea
vs
Charlton
Elo gapSwansea +67
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2996.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2996.1
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1514.2 | 1481.9 |
| Form Elo | 1523.8 | 1471.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.8 | 1511.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1481.1 | 1440.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1514.5 | 1528.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +17.0 | -15.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Swansea last-5 Elo change: +17.0; Charlton last-5 Elo change: -15.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 33% |
| Attack | 35% | 30% |
| Defense | 70% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 45% | 30% | 38% | 39% | 18% | 29% |
| Draws | 27% | 17% | 22% | 17% | 45% | 31% |
| Loses | 27% | 52% | 40% | 43% | 36% | 40% |
SwanseaLWDWDLDWLDLWDLLLLLWWLWLWWLDWLWWLWDLWWLLDDWLWD
CharltonWDLLDWWDLWWDDWLLLLLDWLLDDWLLWDWLDDLWWDLLDLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 23 | 54 | 23 | 20 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 26 | 32 | 58 | 26 | 29 | 55 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Swansea | Charlton | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 73% | 78% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 38% | 13% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 16% | 4% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Swansea | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 91% | 9% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 64.7% | 35.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.83 @ Dafabet
Draw3.85 @ Unibet
Away4.51 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.87 @ SBO
Under 2.52.10 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ 10Bet
No2.23 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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