League One — England
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:00 • Lamex Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.44) 0.48 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
61.4% 26.3% 11.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
21.1%
2 - 0
15.4%
0 - 0
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
Luton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stevenage 0 14.4% 6.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.1% 10.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 15.4% 7.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.5% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricStevenageLuton
Played55
Form67%47%
Attack54%69%
Defense62%38%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Stevenage Luton
HATHAT
Played4595510
Wins100%60%78%60%40%50%
Draws0%20%11%0%20%10%
Loses0%20%11%40%40%40%

Form: Stevenage: WWWWLWDWW • Luton: WWLWLWLLWD

League goals

Metric Stevenage Luton
HATHAT
GF total69155914
GF avg1.51.81.71.01.81.4
GA total1784711
GA avg0.31.40.90.81.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineStevenageLuton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%67%90%50%
1.556%22%40%40%
2.522%0%10%20%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricStevenageLuton
HATHAT
Clean sheets303325
Failed to score011101

Penalties

MetricStevenageLuton
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricStevenageLuton
Wins42
Draws10
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-31-00-3
Biggest losses—1-02-33-1
Goals For2323
Goals Against1233

Model comparison

MetricStevenageLuton
Form59%41%
Att44%56%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution77%23%
H2h62%38%
Goals42%58%
Total57.7%42.3%

Advice: Double chance : Stevenage or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.71 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Unibet
Away2.80 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.66 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.04 @ Pinnacle
No1.86 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Stevenage = 1.46 (league 1.44), Luton = 0.48 (league 1.13)

Luton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stevenage 0 14.4% 6.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.1% 10.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 15.4% 7.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.5% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 61.4% · Draw 26.3% · Away win 11.9%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1