League One — England
Thu, Jan 1 2026 • 15:00 • St James Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.78 (league 1.44) 1.07 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.9% 23.3% 22.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
1 - 0
10.3%
2 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Luton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Exeter City 0 5.8% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 10.3% 11.0% 5.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
2 9.2% 9.8% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.4% 5.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricExeter CityLuton
Played55
Form60%53%
Attack38%75%
Defense81%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.212 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Exeter City Luton
HATHAT
Played101222121123
Wins50%25%36%50%36%43%
Draws20%0%9%25%18%22%
Loses30%75%55%25%45%35%

Form: Exeter City: LWLWLWLLLLWDLWDLLWLWLW • Luton: WWLWLWLLWDLLWWDLWDDDLWW

League goals

Metric Exeter City Luton
HATHAT
GF total16622171633
GF avg1.60.51.01.41.51.4
GA total81321101828
GA avg0.81.11.00.81.61.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineExeter CityLuton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%68%78%57%
1.518%27%43%39%
2.514%0%17%17%
3.55%0%4%4%
4.50%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricExeter CityLuton
HATHAT
Clean sheets4376410
Failed to score268325

Penalties

MetricExeter CityLuton
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricExeter CityLuton
Wins12
Draws13
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-14-00-3
Biggest losses0-22-00-25-0
Goals For4143
Goals Against2235

Model comparison

MetricExeter CityLuton
Form53%47%
Att33%67%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution63%37%
H2h29%71%
Goals23%77%
Total44.7%55.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Luton

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.80 @ 10Bet
Draw3.50 @ Bet365
Away2.12 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.69 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Exeter City = 1.78 (league 1.44), Luton = 1.07 (league 1.12)

Luton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Exeter City 0 5.8% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 10.3% 11.0% 5.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
2 9.2% 9.8% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.4% 5.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.9% · Draw 23.3% · Away win 22.7%

vtt 14 , vtd1