League One — England
Tue, Feb 17 2026 • 19:45 • Cardiff City Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.95 (league 1.47) 1.36 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
61.9% 15.3% 14.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.0%
3 - 1
7.8%
2 - 0
5.8%
Score & goals probability table
AFC Wimbledon
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cardiff 0 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
1 4.0% 5.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
2 5.8% 8.0% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.7% 7.8% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.2% 5.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
5 2.5% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCardiffAFC Wimbledon
Played55
Form73%53%
Attack100%67%
Defense67%42%
Goals For (tot | avg)13 | 2.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Cardiff AFC Wimbledon
HATHAT
Played161531141630
Wins81%47%65%36%38%37%
Draws6%33%19%21%19%20%
Loses13%20%16%43%44%43%

Form: Cardiff: WDWWWWDLWLWWLLWWWWWLWWDWDWDWDWW • AFC Wimbledon: LWWLWLLWWWWDWLLLDLDLDLWLLDLWWD

League goals

Metric Cardiff AFC Wimbledon
HATHAT
GF total382058132235
GF avg2.41.31.90.91.41.2
GA total171330122941
GA avg1.10.91.00.91.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCardiffAFC Wimbledon
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%61%60%80%
1.552%23%43%30%
2.532%13%13%20%
3.513%0%0%3%
4.50%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCardiffAFC Wimbledon
HATHAT
Clean sheets6612426
Failed to score1237512

Penalties

MetricCardiffAFC Wimbledon
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricCardiffAFC Wimbledon
Wins54
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-32-01-3
Biggest losses1-33-11-25-0
Goals For4333
Goals Against3325

Model comparison

MetricCardiffAFC Wimbledon
Form58%42%
Att62%38%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution68%32%
H2h67%33%
Goals38%63%
Total59.5%40.7%

Advice: Double chance : Cardiff or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.40 @ 10Bet
Draw5.07 @ Pinnacle
Away8.50 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.21 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ 188Bet
No1.89 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Cardiff = 2.95 (league 1.47), AFC Wimbledon = 1.36 (league 1.13)

AFC Wimbledon
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cardiff 0 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
1 4.0% 5.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
2 5.8% 8.0% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.7% 7.8% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.2% 5.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
5 2.5% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 61.9% · Draw 15.3% · Away win 14.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1