League One
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Brick Community Stadium
Expected Goals
1.44 (league 1.45)
0.68 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.1% | 27.0% | 17.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.4%
2 - 0
12.5%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| AFC Wimbledon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Wigan | 0 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.4% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Wigan carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 110 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Wigan +30.9, AFC Wimbledon -44.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Wigan
vs
AFC Wimbledon
Elo gapWigan +110
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2959.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2959.4
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1517.1 | 1442.3 |
| Form Elo | 1535.6 | 1409.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.7 | 1481.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1419.3 | 1456.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1541.2 | 1446.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.9 | -44.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Wigan last-5 Elo change: +30.9; AFC Wimbledon last-5 Elo change: -44.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 0% |
| Attack | 100% | 13% |
| Defense | 75% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 50% | 14% | 32% | 36% | 27% | 32% |
| Draws | 18% | 45% | 32% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Loses | 32% | 41% | 36% | 45% | 55% | 50% |
WiganWLWLDDDWLLDLWDDWDWDLLWDLLDLLLLWLWDLWDWLDWWWD
AFC WimbledonLWWLWLLWWWWDWLLLDLDLDLWLLDLWWDLWDWWLLDLLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 25 | 49 | 25 | 25 | 50 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 16 | 40 | 56 | 27 | 41 | 68 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 70% | 59% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 32% | 39% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 14% | 14% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 2% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
Penalties
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 89% | 11% |
| Def | 83% | 17% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 74.0% | 26.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.21 @ Dafabet
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away3.50 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.22 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.83 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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