League One
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Cardiff City Stadium
Expected Goals
2.46 (league 1.45)
0.61 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.0% | 14.8% | 7.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.0%
3 - 0
11.5%
1 - 0
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Northampton | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cardiff | 0 | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.4% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.5% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Cardiff carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 275 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cardiff +27.4, Northampton -40.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Cardiff
vs
Northampton
Elo gapCardiff +275
Home / draw / away68% / 18% / 14%
Expected home share83%
Combined Elo3016.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3016.9
Elo home share
83%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1628.2 | 1388.7 |
| Form Elo | 1634.9 | 1353.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1548.2 | 1436.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1650.3 | 1409.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1581.3 | 1439.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +27.4 | -40.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cardiff last-5 Elo change: +27.4; Northampton last-5 Elo change: -40.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 0% |
| Attack | 88% | 50% |
| Defense | 63% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 21 | 22 | 43 | 21 | 22 | 43 |
| Wins | 71% | 45% | 58% | 29% | 14% | 21% |
| Draws | 10% | 36% | 23% | 19% | 18% | 19% |
| Loses | 19% | 18% | 19% | 52% | 68% | 60% |
CardiffWDWWWWDLWLWWLLWWWWWLWWDWDWDWDWWWLWLDWLDDWDW
NorthamptonLDLLWWWLWDLWLLWLWDLWLLDDLLLLDWDLLLDLLLLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 44 | 36 | 80 | 21 | 15 | 36 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 22 | 22 | 44 | 27 | 38 | 65 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cardiff | Northampton | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 63% | 58% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 51% | 23% | 19% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 12% | 7% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 18 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-2 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 81% | 19% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 59.4% | 40.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.19 @ Unibet
Draw8.20 @ Dafabet
Away15.00 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.38 @ Unibet
Under 2.53.50 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.85 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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