League One
— England
Sat, May 2 2026 • 14:00 •
Vale Park
Expected Goals
0.55 (league 1.46)
1.31 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 15.5% | 28.9% | 55.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
20.4%
0 - 0
15.6%
0 - 2
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Lincoln | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Port Vale | 0 | 15.6% | 20.4% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Lincoln carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 193 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Port Vale -0.5, Lincoln +23.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Port Vale
vs
Lincoln
Elo gapLincoln +193
Home / draw / away21% / 18% / 61%
Expected home share25%
Combined Elo3207
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3207
Elo home share
25%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1489.5 | 1717.5 |
| Form Elo | 1485.7 | 1736.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.5 | 1577.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1444.9 | 1739 |
| Defense Elo | 1505.7 | 1651.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.5 | +23.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Port Vale last-5 Elo change: -0.5; Lincoln last-5 Elo change: +23.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 87% |
| Attack | 27% | 80% |
| Defense | 73% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 18% | 23% | 20% | 78% | 55% | 67% |
| Draws | 41% | 14% | 27% | 17% | 27% | 22% |
| Loses | 41% | 64% | 52% | 4% | 18% | 11% |
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League goals
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 17 | 34 | 53 | 34 | 87 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 23 | 35 | 58 | 20 | 21 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Port Vale | Lincoln | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 70% | 89% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 34% | 64% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 18% | 27% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 7% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| Failed to score | 12 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 28% | 72% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 26% | 74% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 34.7% | 65.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home6.62 @ 1xBet
Draw4.30 @ Dafabet
Away1.55 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.98 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.07 @ Betano
No1.75 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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