Ligue 1 — France
Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 15:00 • Stade du Moustoir
Match Finished
3 - 1
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.71) 2.71 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.5% 17.1% 58.2%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.3%
1 - 3
7.5%
1 - 1
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
Monaco
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 1.5% 4.2% 5.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.9%
1 2.3% 6.1% 8.3% 7.5% 5.1% 2.7%
2 1.6% 4.5% 6.0% 5.5% 3.7% 2.0%
3 0.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.0%
4 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLorientMonaco
Played55
Form27%80%
Attack43%93%
Defense7%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

79%
FT probability

3.5+

56%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

4 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lorient Monaco
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins50%0%20%100%50%80%
Draws0%33%20%0%0%0%
Loses50%67%60%0%50%20%

Form: Lorient: LWLLD • Monaco: WLWWW

League goals

Metric Lorient Monaco
HATHAT
GF total51611213
GF avg2.50.31.23.71.02.6
GA total7613527
GA avg3.52.02.61.71.01.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLorientMonaco
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%80%100%
1.520%40%80%40%
2.520%40%60%0%
3.520%40%20%0%
4.50%20%20%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLorientMonaco
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score022011

Penalties

MetricLorientMonaco
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricLorientMonaco
Wins11
Draws00
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-0—5-21-2
Biggest losses1-74-0—1-0
Goals For4152
Goals Against7421

Model comparison

MetricLorientMonaco
Form25%75%
Att32%68%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution30%70%
H2h36%64%
Goals44%56%
Total33.7%66.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Monaco and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.60 @ Betfair
Draw4.20 @ 1xBet
Away1.82 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.67 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.45 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.63 @ Pinnacle
No2.37 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lorient = 1.46 (league 1.71), Monaco = 2.71 (league 1.29)

Monaco
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 1.5% 4.2% 5.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.9%
1 2.3% 6.1% 8.3% 7.5% 5.1% 2.7%
2 1.6% 4.5% 6.0% 5.5% 3.7% 2.0%
3 0.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.0%
4 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.5% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 58.2%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1