Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 18:45 • Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.76 (league 1.71) 1.25 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.6% 29.5% 47.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.8%
0 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
Paris Saint Germain
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 13.5% 16.8% 10.5% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3%
1 10.2% 12.7% 7.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 3.9% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleParis Saint Germain
Played55
Form60%80%
Attack100%100%
Defense25%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 211 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Paris Saint Germain
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins67%33%50%100%67%83%
Draws0%33%17%0%0%0%
Loses33%33%33%0%33%17%

Form: Lille: DWWWLL • Paris Saint Germain: WWWWLW

League goals

Metric Lille Paris Saint Germain
HATHAT
GF total310135712
GF avg1.03.32.21.72.32.0
GA total279044
GA avg0.72.31.50.01.30.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleParis Saint Germain
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%83%83%33%
1.550%33%50%17%
2.533%33%17%17%
3.517%0%17%0%
4.517%0%17%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleParis Saint Germain
HATHAT
Clean sheets101314
Failed to score112011

Penalties

MetricLilleParis Saint Germain
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricLilleParis Saint Germain
Wins34
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-72-03-6
Biggest losses0-13-0—1-0
Goals For2726
Goals Against1303

Model comparison

MetricLilleParis Saint Germain
Form43%57%
Att48%52%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h7%93%
Goals32%68%
Total34.3%65.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Paris Saint Germain

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.39 @ 1xBet
Draw4.00 @ 188Bet
Away1.87 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.89 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.28 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.65 @ 188Bet
No2.35 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lille = 0.76 (league 1.71), Paris Saint Germain = 1.25 (league 1.29)

Paris Saint Germain
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 13.5% 16.8% 10.5% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3%
1 10.2% 12.7% 7.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 3.9% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away win 47.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1