Ligue 1 — France
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 15:00 • Stade Saint-Symphorien
Match Finished
0 - 3
Expected Goals
0.17 (league 1.73) 0.37 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.4% 62.0% 26.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
58.2%
0 - 1
21.4%
1 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Marseille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Metz 0 58.2% 21.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
1 10.1% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMetzMarseille
Played55
Form13%80%
Attack100%100%
Defense0%20%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Metz Marseille
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins0%0%0%100%33%67%
Draws67%0%33%0%0%0%
Loses33%100%67%0%67%33%

Form: Metz: LLLDLD • Marseille: LWLWWW

League goals

Metric Metz Marseille
HATHAT
GF total14510212
GF avg0.31.30.83.30.72.0
GA total21113235
GA avg0.73.72.20.71.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMetzMarseille
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%83%67%67%
1.533%50%50%17%
2.50%50%33%0%
3.50%17%33%0%
4.50%17%17%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMetzMarseille
HATHAT
Clean sheets101202
Failed to score213022

Penalties

MetricMetzMarseille
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricMetzMarseille
Wins01
Draws10
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——4-01-2
Biggest losses0-15-2—1-0
Goals For1252
Goals Against1521

Model comparison

MetricMetzMarseille
Form14%86%
Att29%71%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h36%64%
Goals45%55%
Total30.0%70.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Marseille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.40 @ Unibet
Draw4.74 @ 1xBet
Away1.55 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.68 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.39 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.78 @ Pinnacle
No2.15 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Metz = 0.17 (league 1.73), Marseille = 0.37 (league 1.33)

Marseille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Metz 0 58.2% 21.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
1 10.1% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 11.4% · Draw 62.0% · Away win 26.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1