Ligue 1 — France
Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 19:05 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.48 (league 1.73) 0.16 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
84.2% 10.2% 1.5%
best score tips
2 - 0
22.0%
3 - 0
18.2%
1 - 0
17.7%
Score & goals probability table
Le Havre
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 7.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 22.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 18.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 11.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 5.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleLe Havre
Played55
Form80%40%
Attack48%29%
Defense90%76%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Le Havre
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins100%50%71%25%0%14%
Draws0%0%0%50%33%43%
Loses0%50%29%25%67%43%

Form: Marseille: LWLWWWW • Le Havre: LLWLDDD

League goals

Metric Marseille Le Havre
HATHAT
GF total10515718
GF avg3.31.32.11.80.31.1
GA total2356410
GA avg0.70.80.71.51.31.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleLe Havre
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%57%71%86%
1.557%14%29%43%
2.543%0%14%14%
3.529%0%0%0%
4.514%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleLe Havre
HATHAT
Clean sheets213011
Failed to score022022

Penalties

MetricMarseilleLe Havre
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricMarseilleLe Havre
Wins11
Draws00
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-33-1—
Biggest losses—1-01-23-1
Goals For5331
Goals Against2123

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleLe Havre
Form67%33%
Att63%38%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution93%7%
H2h100%0%
Goals80%20%
Total74.8%25.4%

Advice: Winner : Marseille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.39 @ 1xBet
Draw5.58 @ Pinnacle
Away9.29 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ Pinnacle
No1.92 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.66 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.41 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 2.48 (league 1.73), Le Havre = 0.16 (league 1.33)

Le Havre
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 7.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 22.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 18.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 11.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 5.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 84.2% · Draw 10.2% · Away win 1.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1