Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 15:15 • Stadium de Toulouse
Match Finished
4 - 0
Expected Goals
5.02 (league 1.70) 2.77 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.0% 9.9% 11.5%
best score tips
5 - 2
4.2%
4 - 2
4.2%
5 - 3
3.9%
Score & goals probability table
Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toulouse 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
1 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%
2 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7%
3 0.9% 2.4% 3.4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.2%
4 1.1% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 2.7% 1.5%
5 1.1% 3.1% 4.2% 3.9% 2.7% 1.5%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricToulouseMetz
Played55
Form27%13%
Attack33%21%
Defense50%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.412 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

82%
FT probability

3.5+

58%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toulouse Metz
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%50%43%0%0%0%
Draws33%0%14%50%0%29%
Loses33%50%43%50%100%71%

Form: Toulouse: WWLLLDW • Metz: LLLDLDL

League goals

Metric Toulouse Metz
HATHAT
GF total7411145
GF avg2.31.01.60.31.30.7
GA total841251116
GA avg2.71.01.71.33.72.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineToulouseMetz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%71%43%86%
1.557%43%29%57%
2.514%14%0%57%
3.50%14%0%14%
4.50%14%0%14%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricToulouseMetz
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score011314

Penalties

MetricToulouseMetz
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricToulouseMetz
Wins20
Draws11
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-2——
Biggest losses3-62-10-35-2
Goals For3212
Goals Against6235

Model comparison

MetricToulouseMetz
Form67%33%
Att62%38%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h75%25%
Goals70%30%
Total64.2%35.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Toulouse or draw and +2.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.62 @ Betano
Draw4.24 @ 1xBet
Away6.43 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.94 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.02 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Pinnacle
No1.91 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Toulouse = 5.02 (league 1.70), Metz = 2.77 (league 1.27)

Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toulouse 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
1 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%
2 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7%
3 0.9% 2.4% 3.4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.2%
4 1.1% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 2.7% 1.5%
5 1.1% 3.1% 4.2% 3.9% 2.7% 1.5%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.0% · Draw 9.9% · Away win 11.5%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1