Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 14:00 • Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Match Finished
6 - 1
Expected Goals
2.22 (league 1.71) 0.62 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
71.4% 17.1% 8.9%
best score tips
2 - 0
14.4%
1 - 0
13.0%
3 - 0
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 5.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 13.0% 8.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.4% 8.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.7% 6.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleMetz
Played55
Form47%13%
Attack42%25%
Defense50%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.213 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Metz
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins50%50%50%0%0%0%
Draws25%25%25%50%0%25%
Loses25%25%25%50%100%75%

Form: Lille: DWWWLLDW • Metz: LLLDLDLL

League goals

Metric Lille Metz
HATHAT
GF total41216145
GF avg1.03.02.00.31.00.6
GA total371051520
GA avg0.81.81.31.33.82.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleMetz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%38%88%
1.550%25%25%63%
2.525%25%0%63%
3.513%0%0%25%
4.513%0%0%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleMetz
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score112325

Penalties

MetricLilleMetz
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricLilleMetz
Wins30
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-7——
Biggest losses0-13-00-34-0
Goals For2712
Goals Against1335

Model comparison

MetricLilleMetz
Form78%22%
Att63%38%
Def68%32%
Poisson Distribution77%23%
H2h85%15%
Goals69%31%
Total73.3%26.8%

Advice: Double chance : Lille or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.36 @ Dafabet
Draw6.50 @ Unibet
Away11.70 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.52 @ Betano
Under 2.52.80 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.91 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lille = 2.22 (league 1.71), Metz = 0.62 (league 1.29)

Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 5.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 13.0% 8.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.4% 8.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.7% 6.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 71.4% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 8.9%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1