Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 14:00 • Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Not Started
Expected Goals
2.18 (league 1.75) 0.60 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
71.4% 17.4% 8.8%
best score tips
2 - 0
14.7%
1 - 0
13.5%
3 - 0
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 6.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 13.5% 8.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.7% 8.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.7% 6.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleMetz
Played55
Form47%13%
Attack26%16%
Defense68%32%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.213 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Metz
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins50%50%50%0%0%0%
Draws25%25%25%50%0%25%
Loses25%25%25%50%100%75%

Form: Lille: DWWWLLDW • Metz: LLLDLDLL

League goals

Metric Lille Metz
HATHAT
GF total41216145
GF avg1.03.02.00.31.00.6
GA total371051520
GA avg0.81.81.31.33.82.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleMetz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%38%88%
1.550%25%25%63%
2.525%25%0%63%
3.513%0%0%25%
4.513%0%0%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleMetz
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score112325

Penalties

MetricLilleMetz
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricLilleMetz
Wins30
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-7
Biggest losses0-13-00-34-0
Goals For2712
Goals Against1335

Model comparison

MetricLilleMetz
Form78%22%
Att63%38%
Def68%32%
Poisson Distribution77%23%
H2h85%15%
Goals69%31%
Total73.3%26.8%

Advice: Double chance : Lille or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.36 @ 1xBet
Draw5.57 @ Pinnacle
Away10.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.44 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Pinnacle
No1.87 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lille = 2.18 (league 1.75), Metz = 0.60 (league 1.33)

Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 6.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 13.5% 8.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.7% 8.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.7% 6.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 71.4% · Draw 17.4% · Away win 8.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1