Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 14:00 • Stade du Moustoir
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.40 (league 1.71) 1.49 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
35.4% 24.8% 39.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 2
8.6%
0 - 1
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Toulouse
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 5.6% 8.3% 6.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
1 7.8% 11.6% 8.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.5% 8.1% 6.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLorientToulouse
Played55
Form13%53%
Attack36%73%
Defense0%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lorient Toulouse
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins40%0%18%33%40%36%
Draws40%17%27%50%0%27%
Loses20%83%55%17%60%36%

Form: Lorient: LWLLDWLDLDL • Toulouse: WWLLLDWWLDD

League goals

Metric Lorient Toulouse
HATHAT
GF total1211313417
GF avg2.40.21.22.20.81.5
GA total12132510515
GA avg2.42.22.31.71.01.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLorientToulouse
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%91%73%64%
1.527%55%55%36%
2.527%36%18%9%
3.59%18%9%9%
4.50%9%0%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLorientToulouse
HATHAT
Clean sheets101314
Failed to score055123

Penalties

MetricLorientToulouse
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricLorientToulouse
Wins12
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-0—4-01-2
Biggest losses1-74-03-62-1
Goals For4142
Goals Against7462

Model comparison

MetricLorientToulouse
Form20%80%
Att33%67%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h38%62%
Goals45%55%
Total34.8%65.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Toulouse

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.13 @ 1xBet
Draw3.38 @ 1xBet
Away2.50 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.17 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.81 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No2.06 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lorient = 1.40 (league 1.71), Toulouse = 1.49 (league 1.29)

Toulouse
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 5.6% 8.3% 6.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
1 7.8% 11.6% 8.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.5% 8.1% 6.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 35.4% · Draw 24.8% · Away win 39.1%

Vtot 42 , Vtod1