Ligue 1 — France
Sat, Nov 8 2025 • 16:00 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.77 (league 1.72) 1.11 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.2% 9.3% 6.5%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.5%
4 - 1
7.1%
3 - 0
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
Stade Brestois 29
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 2.9% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.4% 6.0% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 6.8% 7.5% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.4% 7.1% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
5 4.8% 5.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29
Played55
Form67%20%
Attack100%75%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)13 | 2.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Stade Brestois 29
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins80%50%64%17%20%18%
Draws20%0%9%50%20%36%
Loses0%50%27%33%60%45%

Form: Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDW • Stade Brestois 29: DLLLWWDDLLD

League goals

Metric Marseille Stade Brestois 29
HATHAT
GF total187258614
GF avg3.61.22.31.31.21.3
GA total65119918
GA avg1.20.81.01.51.81.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleStade Brestois 29
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%64%55%73%
1.555%36%36%55%
2.536%0%27%36%
3.527%0%9%0%
4.518%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29
HATHAT
Clean sheets224213
Failed to score022325

Penalties

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29
Wins52
Draws12
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-34-10-2
Biggest losses—2-10-33-1
Goals For6343
Goals Against2233

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29
Form77%23%
Att81%19%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution75%25%
H2h60%40%
Goals71%29%
Total69.7%30.3%

Advice: Winner : Marseille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.52 @ 1xBet
Draw4.78 @ 1xBet
Away7.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.71 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.32 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No2.05 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 3.77 (league 1.72), Stade Brestois 29 = 1.11 (league 1.30)

Stade Brestois 29
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 2.9% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.4% 6.0% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 6.8% 7.5% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.4% 7.1% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
5 4.8% 5.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.2% · Draw 9.3% · Away win 6.5%

Vtot 18 , Vtod4