Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 19:45 • Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Match Finished
4 - 2
Expected Goals
1.79 (league 1.71) 0.65 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.7% 22.3% 13.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.6%
2 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
Paris FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 8.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 15.6% 10.2% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.0% 9.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.3% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleParis FC
Played55
Form60%27%
Attack45%30%
Defense75%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Paris FC
HATHAT
Played66126612
Wins67%33%50%33%33%33%
Draws17%17%17%17%17%17%
Loses17%50%33%50%50%50%

Form: Lille: DWWWLLDWWLWL • Paris FC: LLWWLDWLLDWL

League goals

Metric Lille Paris FC
HATHAT
GF total11122311718
GF avg1.82.01.91.81.21.5
GA total41115111021
GA avg0.71.81.31.81.71.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleParis FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%75%83%83%
1.542%33%50%50%
2.525%17%17%25%
3.517%0%0%8%
4.517%0%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleParis FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets213112
Failed to score134112

Penalties

MetricLilleParis FC
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricLilleParis FC
Wins32
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-11-72-01-2
Biggest losses0-13-02-35-2
Goals For6732
Goals Against1335

Model comparison

MetricLilleParis FC
Form69%31%
Att60%40%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total65.8%34.3%

Advice: Double chance : Lille or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.78 @ Betano
Draw4.12 @ 1xBet
Away5.08 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.80 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.18 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.79 @ Pinnacle
No2.11 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lille = 1.79 (league 1.71), Paris FC = 0.65 (league 1.29)

Paris FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 8.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 15.6% 10.2% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.0% 9.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.3% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.7% · Draw 22.3% · Away win 13.0%

Vtot 40 , Vtod1