Ligue 1 — France
Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 20:05 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.04 (league 1.71) 0.62 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.0% 19.0% 10.1%
best score tips
2 - 0
14.6%
1 - 0
14.2%
3 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Toulouse
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 7.0% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 14.2% 8.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.6% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.9% 6.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleToulouse
Played55
Form67%20%
Attack80%20%
Defense67%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Toulouse
HATHAT
Played67137613
Wins83%57%69%29%33%31%
Draws17%0%8%43%17%31%
Loses0%43%23%29%50%38%

Form: Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDWWW • Toulouse: WWLLLDWWLDDDL

League goals

Metric Marseille Toulouse
HATHAT
GF total21123313518
GF avg3.51.72.51.90.81.4
GA total661211617
GA avg1.00.90.91.61.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleToulouse
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%62%69%69%
1.562%31%46%31%
2.546%0%15%8%
3.531%0%8%8%
4.523%0%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleToulouse
HATHAT
Clean sheets325314
Failed to score022224

Penalties

MetricMarseilleToulouse
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total44

Streaks

MetricMarseilleToulouse
Wins52
Draws13
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-21-54-01-2
Biggest losses—2-13-62-1
Goals For6542
Goals Against2262

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleToulouse
Form77%23%
Att80%20%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h85%15%
Goals61%39%
Total71.2%28.8%

Advice: Winner : Marseille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ 1xBet
Draw4.10 @ Marathonbet
Away5.40 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.21 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.76 @ Unibet
No2.14 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 2.04 (league 1.71), Toulouse = 0.62 (league 1.29)

Toulouse
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 7.0% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 14.2% 8.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.6% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.9% 6.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.0% · Draw 19.0% · Away win 10.1%

Vtot 21 , Vtod3