Ligue 1 — France
Fri, Dec 5 2025 • 20:00 • Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.11 (league 1.70) 1.21 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.3% 28.1% 38.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Marseille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 9.8% 11.9% 7.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
1 10.9% 13.2% 8.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 6.0% 7.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleMarseille
Played55
Form60%73%
Attack43%93%
Defense57%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Marseille
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins71%43%57%71%57%64%
Draws14%14%14%29%0%14%
Loses14%43%29%0%43%21%

Form: Lille: DWWWLLDWWLWLWW • Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDWWWD

League goals

Metric Lille Marseille
HATHAT
GF total151328231235
GF avg2.11.92.03.31.72.5
GA total611178614
GA avg0.91.61.21.10.91.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleMarseille
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%71%86%64%
1.543%36%64%36%
2.529%14%43%0%
3.521%0%29%0%
4.514%0%21%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleMarseille
HATHAT
Clean sheets224325
Failed to score134022

Penalties

MetricLilleMarseille
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricLilleMarseille
Wins35
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-11-76-21-5
Biggest losses0-13-0—2-1
Goals For6765
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricLilleMarseille
Form45%55%
Att32%68%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h64%36%
Goals60%40%
Total48.7%51.3%

Advice: Double chance : Lille or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.40 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.67 @ 1xBet
Away3.06 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.81 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.18 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.43 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lille = 1.11 (league 1.70), Marseille = 1.21 (league 1.26)

Marseille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 9.8% 11.9% 7.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
1 10.9% 13.2% 8.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 6.0% 7.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.3% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 38.3%

Vtot 44 , Vtod1