Ligue 1 — France
Fri, Dec 5 2025 • 20:00 • Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.10 (league 1.71) 1.18 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.7% 28.4% 37.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
Marseille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 10.1% 12.0% 7.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.2% 13.3% 7.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleMarseille
Played55
Form60%73%
Attack79%93%
Defense50%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Marseille
HATHAT
Played76137714
Wins71%33%54%71%57%64%
Draws14%17%15%29%0%14%
Loses14%50%31%0%43%21%

Form: Lille: DWWWLLDWWLWLW • Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDWWWD

League goals

Metric Lille Marseille
HATHAT
GF total151227231235
GF avg2.12.02.13.31.72.5
GA total611178614
GA avg0.91.81.31.10.91.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleMarseille
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%77%86%64%
1.546%38%64%36%
2.531%15%43%0%
3.523%0%29%0%
4.515%0%21%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleMarseille
HATHAT
Clean sheets213325
Failed to score134022

Penalties

MetricLilleMarseille
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricLilleMarseille
Wins35
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-11-76-21-5
Biggest losses0-13-0—2-1
Goals For6765
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricLilleMarseille
Form45%55%
Att46%54%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h64%36%
Goals60%40%
Total50.5%49.5%

Advice: Double chance : Lille or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.70 @ 1xBet
Draw3.60 @ 1xBet
Away2.71 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.81 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.17 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.39 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lille = 1.10 (league 1.71), Marseille = 1.18 (league 1.29)

Marseille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 10.1% 12.0% 7.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.2% 13.3% 7.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.7% · Draw 28.4% · Away win 37.7%

Vtot 5 , Vtod4