Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 19:45 • Stade du Moustoir
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
1.76 (league 1.70) 1.73 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.5% 22.3% 37.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Lyon
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 3.0% 5.3% 4.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
1 5.3% 9.3% 8.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 2.8% 4.8% 4.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
4 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLorientLyon
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack55%73%
Defense36%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lorient Lyon
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins43%0%21%71%29%50%
Draws43%29%36%0%43%21%
Loses14%71%43%29%29%29%

Form: Lorient: LWLLDWLDLDLDDW • Lyon: WWWLWWLLWDDLDW

League goals

Metric Lorient Lyon
HATHAT
GF total1621813821
GF avg2.30.31.31.91.11.5
GA total1414286915
GA avg2.02.02.00.91.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLorientLyon
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%93%86%43%
1.529%43%43%36%
2.529%29%21%29%
3.57%14%0%0%
4.50%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLorientLyon
HATHAT
Clean sheets101448
Failed to score055022

Penalties

MetricLorientLyon
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricLorientLyon
Wins13
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-0—3-00-1
Biggest losses1-74-02-33-1
Goals For4133
Goals Against7433

Model comparison

MetricLorientLyon
Form50%50%
Att43%57%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h38%62%
Goals41%59%
Total44.0%56.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Lyon

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.81 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.54 @ 1xBet
Away2.12 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.86 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.99 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lorient = 1.76 (league 1.70), Lyon = 1.73 (league 1.27)

Lyon
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 3.0% 5.3% 4.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
1 5.3% 9.3% 8.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 2.8% 4.8% 4.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
4 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.5% · Draw 22.3% · Away win 37.4%

Vtot 46 , Vtod1