Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 19:45 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.94 (league 1.68) 1.21 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.7% 9.0% 6.6%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.2%
4 - 1
7.0%
3 - 0
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
Monaco
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
2 4.5% 5.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 5.9% 7.2% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
4 5.8% 7.0% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
5 4.6% 5.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleMonaco
Played55
Form67%20%
Attack61%17%
Defense78%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.810 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Monaco
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins71%50%60%63%29%47%
Draws29%0%13%13%14%13%
Loses0%50%27%25%57%40%

Form: Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDWWWDL • Monaco: WLWWWLDDWWLLLWL

League goals

Metric Marseille Monaco
HATHAT
GF total231235161026
GF avg3.31.52.32.01.41.7
GA total8715121426
GA avg1.10.91.01.52.01.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleMonaco
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%67%80%87%
1.560%33%40%47%
2.540%0%27%27%
3.527%0%13%13%
4.520%0%13%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleMonaco
HATHAT
Clean sheets325202
Failed to score033123

Penalties

MetricMarseilleMonaco
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total44

Streaks

MetricMarseilleMonaco
Wins53
Draws12
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-21-55-23-5
Biggest losses—2-11-44-1
Goals For6555
Goals Against2244

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleMonaco
Form77%23%
Att79%21%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution73%27%
H2h38%62%
Goals41%59%
Total63.2%36.8%

Advice: Winner : Marseille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.98 @ Betano
Draw3.96 @ Pinnacle
Away3.96 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.55 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.65 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.51 @ Pinnacle
No2.70 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 3.94 (league 1.68), Monaco = 1.21 (league 1.27)

Monaco
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
2 4.5% 5.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 5.9% 7.2% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
4 5.8% 7.0% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
5 4.6% 5.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.7% · Draw 9.0% · Away win 6.6%

vtt 27 , vtd1