Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 16:15 • Stade du Moustoir
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
4.25 (league 1.68) 1.84 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.9% 10.4% 10.3%
best score tips
4 - 1
5.7%
3 - 1
5.3%
4 - 2
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
2 2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4%
3 2.9% 5.3% 4.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5%
4 3.1% 5.7% 5.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5%
5 2.6% 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLorientMetz
Played55
Form60%20%
Attack46%54%
Defense77%15%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lorient Metz
HATHAT
Played88168816
Wins50%0%25%25%13%19%
Draws38%38%38%25%0%13%
Loses13%63%38%50%88%69%

Form: Lorient: LWLLDWLDLDLDDWWD • Metz: LLLDLDLLLWWWLLLL

League goals

Metric Lorient Metz
HATHAT
GF total1721971017
GF avg2.10.31.20.91.31.1
GA total141428102737
GA avg1.81.81.81.33.42.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLorientMetz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%81%63%81%
1.525%38%44%56%
2.525%25%0%56%
3.56%13%0%19%
4.50%6%0%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLorientMetz
HATHAT
Clean sheets213213
Failed to score066426

Penalties

MetricLorientMetz
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricLorientMetz
Wins23
Draws21
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-0—2-00-2
Biggest losses1-74-00-36-1
Goals For4122
Goals Against7436

Model comparison

MetricLorientMetz
Form75%25%
Att46%54%
Def79%21%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h62%38%
Goals55%45%
Total64.5%35.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Lorient or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.88 @ 10Bet
Draw3.78 @ Pinnacle
Away4.57 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.96 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.99 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.81 @ Pinnacle
No2.08 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lorient = 4.25 (league 1.68), Metz = 1.84 (league 1.27)

Metz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lorient 0 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
2 2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4%
3 2.9% 5.3% 4.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5%
4 3.1% 5.7% 5.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5%
5 2.6% 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.9% · Draw 10.4% · Away win 10.3%

vtt 3 , vtd1