Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 14:00 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.86 (league 1.68) 0.63 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
75.8% 11.6% 5.5%
best score tips
2 - 0
12.5%
3 - 0
11.9%
1 - 0
8.7%
Score & goals probability table
Nantes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 8.7% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.5% 7.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.9% 7.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.5% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.9% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleNantes
Played55
Form67%13%
Attack92%33%
Defense67%8%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.811 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Nantes
HATHAT
Played88168816
Wins75%50%63%13%13%13%
Draws25%0%13%25%38%31%
Loses0%50%25%63%50%56%

Form: Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDWWWDLW • Nantes: LLWLDDDLWLLDDLLL

League goals

Metric Marseille Nantes
HATHAT
GF total2412368614
GF avg3.01.52.31.00.80.9
GA total8715151328
GA avg1.00.90.91.91.61.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleNantes
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%63%56%88%
1.556%31%25%50%
2.538%0%6%19%
3.525%0%0%13%
4.519%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleNantes
HATHAT
Clean sheets426112
Failed to score033347

Penalties

MetricMarseilleNantes
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total40

Streaks

MetricMarseilleNantes
Wins51
Draws13
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-21-51-01-2
Biggest losses—2-13-54-1
Goals For6532
Goals Against2254

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleNantes
Form83%17%
Att73%27%
Def73%27%
Poisson Distribution82%18%
H2h93%7%
Goals82%18%
Total81.0%19.0%

Advice: Winner : Marseille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.27 @ 1xBet
Draw6.70 @ Betano
Away13.70 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.54 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.88 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ Pinnacle
No1.95 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 2.86 (league 1.68), Nantes = 0.63 (league 1.27)

Nantes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 8.7% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.5% 7.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.9% 7.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.5% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.9% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 75.8% · Draw 11.6% · Away win 5.5%

vtt 5 , vtd1