Ligue 1 — France
Sun, Mar 22 2026 • 16:15 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.31 (league 1.62) 1.43 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.3% 19.6% 22.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.1%
1 - 1
7.9%
3 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Lille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 2.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.5% 7.9% 5.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.4% 9.1% 6.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.9% 7.0% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.8% 4.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleLille
Played55
Form67%73%
Attack41%35%
Defense65%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

91%
FT probability

2.5+

64%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Lille
HATHAT
Played131326131326
Wins69%46%58%54%46%50%
Draws23%8%15%23%15%19%
Loses8%46%27%23%38%31%

Form: Marseille: LWLWWWWWLDWWWDLWLWWDLDLWWW • Lille: DWWWLLDWWLWLWWWWLLLLDDWWDW

League goals

Metric Marseille Lille
HATHAT
GF total332053202040
GF avg2.51.52.01.51.51.5
GA total151833141933
GA avg1.21.41.31.11.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleLille
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%69%69%69%
1.554%46%31%35%
2.535%4%19%19%
3.519%4%15%4%
4.515%4%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleLille
HATHAT
Clean sheets538448
Failed to score156268

Penalties

MetricMarseilleLille
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total54

Streaks

MetricMarseilleLille
Wins54
Draws12
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-21-56-11-7
Biggest losses0-25-01-43-0
Goals For6567
Goals Against2543

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleLille
Form48%52%
Att54%46%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h25%75%
Goals36%64%
Total42.8%57.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Lille

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.95 @ 1xBet
Draw3.81 @ 1xBet
Away4.16 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.93 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.05 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.78 @ Pinnacle
No2.13 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 2.31 (league 1.62), Lille = 1.43 (league 1.26)

Lille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 2.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.5% 7.9% 5.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.4% 9.1% 6.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.9% 7.0% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.8% 4.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.3% · Draw 19.6% · Away win 22.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1