Ligue 1 — France
Sat, Mar 21 2026 • 16:00 • Stadium de Toulouse
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.48 (league 1.62) 0.83 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.2% 26.4% 21.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.7%
1 - 1
12.2%
2 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Lorient
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toulouse 0 9.9% 8.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 14.7% 12.2% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 10.9% 9.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 5.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricToulouseLorient
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack50%83%
Defense33%42%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toulouse Lorient
HATHAT
Played131326131326
Wins31%38%35%54%15%35%
Draws38%15%27%38%38%38%
Loses31%46%38%8%46%27%

Form: Toulouse: WWLLLDWWLDDDLDWWLWWDLLDLLW • Lorient: LWLLDWLDLDLDDWWDDWWWLWDDDW

League goals

Metric Toulouse Lorient
HATHAT
GF total201737261137
GF avg1.51.31.42.00.81.4
GA total171532192140
GA avg1.31.21.21.51.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineToulouseLorient
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%69%73%81%
1.542%31%42%35%
2.519%12%23%19%
3.512%4%4%8%
4.54%4%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricToulouseLorient
HATHAT
Clean sheets538325
Failed to score549077

Penalties

MetricToulouseLorient
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricToulouseLorient
Wins23
Draws33
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-34-01-3
Biggest losses3-62-11-74-0
Goals For5443
Goals Against6374

Model comparison

MetricToulouseLorient
Form31%69%
Att38%63%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution63%37%
H2h75%25%
Goals58%42%
Total52.0%48.2%

Advice: Double chance : Toulouse or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.07 @ 1xBet
Draw3.25 @ 10Bet
Away4.73 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.75 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ William Hill
No1.93 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Toulouse = 1.48 (league 1.62), Lorient = 0.83 (league 1.25)

Lorient
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toulouse 0 9.9% 8.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 14.7% 12.2% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 10.9% 9.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 5.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.2% · Draw 26.4% · Away win 21.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1