Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.60)
0.44 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8% | 23.9% | 9.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.8%
2 - 0
16.7%
0 - 0
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Auxerre | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lyon | 0 | 13.0% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.7% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.9% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lyon carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 237 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lyon +3.6, Auxerre +16.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lyon
vs
Auxerre
Elo gapLyon +237
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo3110.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3110.1
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1655.8 | 1454.3 |
| Form Elo | 1651 | 1469.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1595 | 1482.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1674.1 | 1419.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1658.4 | 1534.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.6 | +16.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lyon last-5 Elo change: +3.6; Auxerre last-5 Elo change: +16.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 40% |
| Attack | 33% | 40% |
| Defense | 80% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 71% | 38% | 53% | 27% | 7% | 17% |
| Draws | 7% | 31% | 20% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
| Loses | 21% | 31% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 50% |
LyonWWWLWWLLWDDLDWLWWWWWWWLLDDLDWW
AuxerreWLLLWLLDLLLLDDWLLLLDDWLDDLWDDD
League goals
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 22 | 45 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 10 | 20 | 30 | 15 | 24 | 39 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lyon | Auxerre | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 50% | 47% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 30% | 23% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 20% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 59.3% | 40.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.68 @ 1xBet
Draw4.22 @ 1xBet
Away5.50 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.89 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.06 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.87 @ Betfair
No1.95 @ 10Bet
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League standings
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