Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:15 •
Roazhon Park
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.60)
0.55 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% | 24.4% | 12.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.7%
2 - 0
14.9%
0 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Nantes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rennes | 0 | 11.7% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Rennes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 235 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rennes +16.3, Nantes -1.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Rennes
vs
Nantes
Elo gapRennes +235
Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%
Expected home share79%
Combined Elo3016.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3016.4
Elo home share
79%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1608.2 | 1408.2 |
| Form Elo | 1635.9 | 1402.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1529.1 | 1467.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1634.3 | 1420.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.7 | 1444.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.3 | -1.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Rennes last-5 Elo change: +16.3; Nantes last-5 Elo change: -1.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 20% |
| Attack | 67% | 20% |
| Defense | 60% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 53% | 47% | 50% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Draws | 27% | 27% | 27% | 20% | 33% | 27% |
| Loses | 20% | 27% | 23% | 67% | 53% | 60% |
RennesWLDWDDDDLDWWWWLWWDLLLWWWWLDWWW
NantesLLWLDDDLWLLDDLLLWLLLLLWLLLDDDL
League goals
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 26 | 52 | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 15 | 26 | 41 | 27 | 22 | 49 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Rennes | Nantes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 67% | 57% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 40% | 23% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 17% | 3% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-4 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Rennes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 77% | 23% |
| Att | 77% | 23% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 70.0% | 30.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.45 @ 1xBet
Draw5.07 @ 1xBet
Away7.78 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.70 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.35 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.87 @ Betfair
No2.00 @ William Hill
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League standings
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