Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:05 •
Stadium de Toulouse
Expected Goals
1.41 (league 1.59)
1.54 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.4% | 24.5% | 40.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.4%
1 - 2
8.8%
0 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Monaco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toulouse | 0 | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Monaco carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 89 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Toulouse +0.5, Monaco +11.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Toulouse
vs
Monaco
Elo gapMonaco +89
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3097.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3097.7
Elo home share
38%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1487 | 1610.7 |
| Form Elo | 1471.6 | 1633.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1469.9 | 1516.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1507 | 1650.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1443.4 | 1496.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.5 | +11.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Toulouse last-5 Elo change: +0.5; Monaco last-5 Elo change: +11.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 50% | 56% |
| Defense | 19% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Wins | 33% | 33% | 33% | 63% | 36% | 50% |
| Draws | 33% | 13% | 23% | 13% | 21% | 17% |
| Loses | 33% | 53% | 43% | 25% | 43% | 33% |
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MonacoWLWWWLDDWWLLLWLLLLDWDWWWWWWWLD
League goals
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 20 | 41 | 33 | 19 | 52 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 21 | 21 | 42 | 22 | 23 | 45 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Toulouse | Monaco | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 70% | 80% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 37% | 50% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 20% | 27% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 7% | 10% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 39.3% | 60.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.50 @ 1xBet
Draw3.92 @ 1xBet
Away2.12 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.74 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.27 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.32 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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