Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 13:30 • Mewa Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.54) 1.61 (league 1.55)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.9% 24.5% 44.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
1 - 2
9.2%
0 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
Borussia Dortmund
0 1 2 3 4 5
FSV Mainz 05 0 5.6% 9.1% 7.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
1 7.2% 11.5% 9.2% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6%
2 4.5% 7.3% 5.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
Played44
Form33%83%
Attack28%50%
Defense78%83%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 1.39 | 2.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 13 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Dortmund
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins0%50%25%100%50%75%
Draws0%50%25%0%50%25%
Loses100%0%50%0%0%0%

Form: FSV Mainz 05: LDLW • Borussia Dortmund: DWWW

League goals

Metric FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Dortmund
HATHAT
GF total055459
GF avg0.02.51.32.02.52.3
GA total224033
GA avg1.01.01.00.01.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%100%25%
1.525%0%75%25%
2.525%0%50%25%
3.525%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
HATHAT
Clean sheets000213
Failed to score202000

Penalties

MetricFSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricFSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
Wins00
Draws11
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-43-00-2
Biggest losses0-1
Goals For0433
Goals Against1103

Model comparison

MetricFSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
Form29%71%
Att36%64%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h62%38%
Goals59%41%
Total45.8%54.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Borussia Dortmund

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.60 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.92 @ Pinnacle
Away2.10 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.46 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ William Hill
No2.62 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FSV Mainz 05 = 1.27 (league 1.54), Borussia Dortmund = 1.61 (league 1.55)

Borussia Dortmund
0 1 2 3 4 5
FSV Mainz 05 0 5.6% 9.1% 7.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
1 7.2% 11.5% 9.2% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6%
2 4.5% 7.3% 5.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.9% · Draw 24.5% · Away win 44.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1