Bundesliga — Germany
Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 13:30 • Millerntor-Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
4.72 (league 1.59) 4.01 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.6% 11.2% 17.4%
best score tips
4 - 4
3.6%
4 - 3
3.6%
5 - 4
3.4%
Score & goals probability table
Bayer Leverkusen
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC St. Pauli 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
1 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
2 0.2% 0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6%
3 0.3% 1.1% 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4%
4 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 3.6% 3.6% 2.9%
5 0.3% 1.3% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
Played44
Form58%42%
Attack39%44%
Defense67%61%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.88 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.57 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

63%
FT probability

BTTS

93%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC St. Pauli Bayer Leverkusen
HATHAT
Played224314
Wins50%50%50%33%0%25%
Draws50%0%25%33%100%50%
Loses0%50%25%33%0%25%

Form: FC St. Pauli: DWWL • Bayer Leverkusen: LDWD

League goals

Metric FC St. Pauli Bayer Leverkusen
HATHAT
GF total527538
GF avg2.51.01.81.73.02.0
GA total426437
GA avg2.01.01.51.33.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%100%100%
1.575%50%50%50%
2.525%25%50%25%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
HATHAT
Clean sheets011000
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricFC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricFC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
Wins21
Draws11
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-23-1—
Biggest losses—2-01-2—
Goals For3233
Goals Against3223

Model comparison

MetricFC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
Form58%42%
Att47%53%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h9%91%
Goals33%67%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Bayer Leverkusen and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.44 @ 1xBet
Draw3.60 @ Pinnacle
Away2.25 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.96 @ SBO
Under 2.52.00 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FC St. Pauli = 4.72 (league 1.59), Bayer Leverkusen = 4.01 (league 1.50)

Bayer Leverkusen
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC St. Pauli 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
1 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
2 0.2% 0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6%
3 0.3% 1.1% 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4%
4 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 3.6% 3.6% 2.9%
5 0.3% 1.3% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.6% · Draw 11.2% · Away win 17.4%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1