Bundesliga — Germany
Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 17:30 • Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.09 (league 1.62) 0.83 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
72.4% 11.4% 6.8%
best score tips
3 - 0
9.7%
2 - 0
9.4%
3 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Hamburger SV
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Berlin 0 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 6.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.4% 7.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.7% 8.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 7.5% 6.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 4.7% 3.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SV
Played44
Form50%33%
Attack42%11%
Defense42%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 22 | 0.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.88 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Union Berlin Hamburger SV
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins50%50%50%50%0%25%
Draws0%0%0%0%50%25%
Loses50%50%50%50%50%50%

Form: Union Berlin: WLLW • Hamburger SV: DLLW

League goals

Metric Union Berlin Hamburger SV
HATHAT
GF total448202
GF avg2.02.02.01.00.00.5
GA total5611358
GA avg2.53.02.81.52.52.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUnion BerlinHamburger SV
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%100%25%75%
1.575%75%25%50%
2.525%75%0%25%
3.525%25%0%25%
4.50%0%0%25%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SV
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score011123

Penalties

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SV
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SV
Wins10
Draws01
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-13-42-1—
Biggest losses2-43-00-25-0
Goals For2420
Goals Against4325

Model comparison

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SV
Form60%40%
Att80%20%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h80%20%
Goals67%33%
Total65.8%34.2%

Advice: Winner : Union Berlin

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.12 @ 1xBet
Draw3.56 @ 1xBet
Away3.88 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.03 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.96 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ Pinnacle
No2.08 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Union Berlin = 3.09 (league 1.62), Hamburger SV = 0.83 (league 1.50)

Hamburger SV
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Berlin 0 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 6.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.4% 7.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.7% 8.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 7.5% 6.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 4.7% 3.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 72.4% · Draw 11.4% · Away win 6.8%

vtt 4 , vtd1