Bundesliga — Germany
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 13:30 • BayArena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.27 (league 1.56) 1.73 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
56.5% 14.7% 16.7%
best score tips
3 - 1
6.8%
2 - 1
6.2%
3 - 2
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
Union Berlin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bayer Leverkusen 0 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
1 2.2% 3.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
2 3.6% 6.2% 5.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5%
3 3.9% 6.8% 5.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5%
4 3.2% 5.6% 4.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.1% 3.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack63%50%
Defense50%31%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

77%
FT probability

3.5+

55%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bayer Leverkusen Union Berlin
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins33%50%40%33%50%40%
Draws33%50%40%33%0%20%
Loses33%0%20%33%50%40%

Form: Bayer Leverkusen: LDWDW • Union Berlin: WLLWD

League goals

Metric Bayer Leverkusen Union Berlin
HATHAT
GF total5510448
GF avg1.72.52.01.32.01.6
GA total4485611
GA avg1.32.01.61.73.02.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%60%80%
1.560%40%60%60%
2.540%20%20%60%
3.50%0%20%20%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score000112

Penalties

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
Wins11
Draws10
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-22-13-4
Biggest losses1-2—2-43-0
Goals For3324
Goals Against2343

Model comparison

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
Form53%47%
Att56%44%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h85%15%
Goals88%13%
Total67.5%32.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Bayer Leverkusen or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.73 @ 1xBet
Draw4.14 @ 1xBet
Away5.20 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.08 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ 188Bet
No2.08 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bayer Leverkusen = 3.27 (league 1.56), Union Berlin = 1.73 (league 1.50)

Union Berlin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bayer Leverkusen 0 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
1 2.2% 3.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
2 3.6% 6.2% 5.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5%
3 3.9% 6.8% 5.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5%
4 3.2% 5.6% 4.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.1% 3.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.5% · Draw 14.7% · Away win 16.7%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1