Bundesliga — Germany
Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 16:30 • Millerntor-Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.58) 1.73 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.2% 22.4% 37.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Union Berlin
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC St. Pauli 0 3.1% 5.4% 4.6% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4%
1 5.4% 9.3% 8.1% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 2.7% 4.7% 4.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
4 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
Played55
Form0%33%
Attack4%18%
Defense57%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC St. Pauli Union Berlin
HATHAT
Played55106410
Wins20%20%20%33%25%30%
Draws20%0%10%50%0%30%
Loses60%80%70%17%75%40%

Form: FC St. Pauli: DWWLLLLLLL • Union Berlin: WLLWDLWLDD

League goals

Metric FC St. Pauli Union Berlin
HATHAT
GF total6399413
GF avg1.20.60.91.51.01.3
GA total137208917
GA avg2.61.42.01.32.31.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%90%50%80%
1.530%70%50%50%
2.510%30%20%30%
3.50%10%10%10%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
HATHAT
Clean sheets011202
Failed to score235235

Penalties

MetricFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
Wins21
Draws11
Losses02

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-23-13-4
Biggest losses0-42-02-43-0
Goals For3234
Goals Against4243

Model comparison

MetricFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
Form0%100%
Att17%83%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h40%60%
Goals53%47%
Total38.2%61.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Union Berlin

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.72 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.18 @ 1xBet
Away3.02 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.47 @ SBO
Under 2.51.64 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.04 @ Pinnacle
No1.84 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): FC St. Pauli = 1.74 (league 1.58), Union Berlin = 1.73 (league 1.50)

Union Berlin
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC St. Pauli 0 3.1% 5.4% 4.6% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4%
1 5.4% 9.3% 8.1% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 2.7% 4.7% 4.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
4 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.2% · Draw 22.4% · Away win 37.7%

Vtot 71 , Vtod1