Bundesliga — Germany
Sun, Nov 30 2025 • 18:30 • Europa-Park-Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.08 (league 1.56) 1.28 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
53.9% 21.0% 22.9%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 0
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
FSV Mainz 05
0 1 2 3 4 5
SC Freiburg 0 3.5% 4.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 7.3% 9.3% 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.5% 9.6% 6.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
4 2.7% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
Played55
Form33%13%
Attack40%40%
Defense27%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric SC Freiburg FSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins40%17%27%0%20%9%
Draws40%33%36%33%20%27%
Loses20%50%36%67%60%64%

Form: SC Freiburg: LLWWDDDLDWL • FSV Mainz 05: LDLWLLLLDLD

League goals

Metric SC Freiburg FSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
GF total96155611
GF avg1.81.01.40.81.21.0
GA total8122010919
GA avg1.62.01.81.71.81.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%73%55%100%
1.545%45%18%36%
2.518%27%18%18%
3.50%18%9%18%
4.50%9%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
Clean sheets033000
Failed to score033325

Penalties

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
Wins21
Draws31
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-3—1-4
Biggest losses1-36-20-24-0
Goals For3334
Goals Against3644

Model comparison

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
Form71%29%
Att50%50%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h64%36%
Goals56%44%
Total57.5%42.5%

Advice: Double chance : SC Freiburg or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.79 @ Marathonbet
Draw3.88 @ 1xBet
Away4.99 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.91 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.21 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): SC Freiburg = 2.08 (league 1.56), FSV Mainz 05 = 1.28 (league 1.50)

FSV Mainz 05
0 1 2 3 4 5
SC Freiburg 0 3.5% 4.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 7.3% 9.3% 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.5% 9.6% 6.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
4 2.7% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.9% · Draw 21.0% · Away win 22.9%

Vtot 47 , Vtod1